Search Publications
Modeling the 2003 Halloween events with EMMREM: Energetic particles, radial gradients, and coupling to MHD
Schwadron, N. A.; Desai, M. I.; Dayeh, M. A. +3 more
The Earth-Moon-Mars Radiation Environment Module (EMMREM) is a comprehensive numerical framework for characterizing and predicting the radiation environment of the inner heliosphere. We present a study of the October/November 2003 Halloween solar energetic particle events with an energetic particle acceleration and propagation model that is part o…
Application of a new phenomenological coronal mass ejection model to space weather forecasting
Tappin, S. J.; Howard, T. A.
Recent work by the authors has produced a new phenomenological model for coronal mass ejections (CMEs). This model, called the Tappin-Howard (TH) Model, takes advantage of the breakdown of geometrical linearity when CMEs are observed by white-light imagers at large distances from the Sun. The model extracts 3-D structure and kinematic information …
Investigations of the sensitivity of a coronal mass ejection model (ENLIL) to solar input parameters
Odstrcil, D.; Vršnak, B.; Hesse, M. +3 more
Understanding space weather is not only important for satellite operations and human exploration of the solar system but also to phenomena here on Earth that may potentially disturb and disrupt electrical signals. Some of the most violent space weather effects are caused by coronal mass ejections (CMEs), but in order to predict the caused effects,…
Modeling proton intensity gradients and radiation dose equivalents in the inner heliosphere using EMMREM: May 2003 solar events
Schwadron, N. A.; Desai, M. I.; Dayeh, M. A. +5 more
Solar energetic particles (SEPs) provide a significant radiation hazard for manned and unmanned interplanetary (IP) space missions. In order to estimate these hazards, it is essential to quantify the gradients of SEP intensities in the IP medium. The Earth-Moon-Mars Radiation Exposure Module (EMMREM) is a new project aimed at characterizing the ti…
Model uncertainties in predictions of arrival of coronal mass ejections at Earth orbit
Odstrcil, D.; Taktakishvili, A.; MacNeice, P.
It is very important, both for research and forecasting application, to be aware of uncertainty estimation of a scientific model, i.e., to know how model performance depends on the uncertainty in the input parameters. Scientific models are becoming more important as tools for space weather operators' applications and for space weather forecasting.…
On the success rate of the farside seismic imaging of active regions
Scherrer, P. H.; Hill, F.; Braun, D. C. +2 more
Seismic maps of the nonvisible side of the Sun (farside) have been used for almost a decade to follow large active regions before they rotate to face the Earth. Preliminary efforts to quantify the success rate of the technique (seismic holography) have been published with Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) data. In this paper we present a thorough sta…
Space Weather in Focus: A Decade in Review
Tretkoff, Ernie
In the past decade, many events, discoveries, and publications have brought attention to how the Sun affects technologies, increasing awareness of space weather's effects among scientists, policy makers, and the public. As the decade comes to a close, Space Weather staff writers wondered what comes into focus after a quick scan of the past 10 year…
A technique for short-term warning of solar energetic particle events based on flare location, flare size, and evidence of particle escape
Kaiser, M. L.; Ling, A. G.; Laurenza, M. +4 more
We have developed a technique to provide short-term warnings of solar energetic proton (SEP) events that meet or exceed the Space Weather Prediction Center threshold of J (>10 MeV) = 10 pr cm-2 s-1 sr-1. The method is based on flare location, flare size, and evidence of particle acceleration/escape as parameteri…
Automated Solar Activity Prediction: A hybrid computer platform using machine learning and solar imaging for automated prediction of solar flares
Colak, T.; Qahwaji, R.
The importance of real-time processing of solar data especially for space weather applications is increasing continuously. In this paper, we present an automated hybrid computer platform for the short-term prediction of significant solar flares using SOHO/Michelson Doppler Imager images. This platform is called the Automated Solar Activity Predict…
Validation of the coronal mass ejection predictions at the Earth orbit estimated by ENLIL heliosphere cone model
Odstrcil, D.; Kuznetsova, M.; Hesse, M. +5 more
Modeling is an important tool in understanding physical processes in the space weather. Model performance studies evaluate the quality of model operation by comparing its output to a measurable parameter of interest. In this paper we studied the performance of the combination of the halo coronal mass ejection (CME) analytical cone model and ENLIL …