Search Publications
Ensemble forecasting of major solar flares: First results
Pulkkinen, A.; Guerra, J. A.; Uritsky, V. M.
We present the results from the first ensemble prediction model for major solar flares (M and X classes). The primary aim of this investigation is to explore the construction of an ensemble for an initial prototyping of this new concept. Using the probabilistic forecasts from three models hosted at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (NASA-G…
Theoretical basis for operational ensemble forecasting of coronal mass ejections
Odstrcil, D.; Biesecker, D. A.; Millward, G. +5 more
We lay out the theoretical underpinnings for the application of the Wang-Sheeley-Arge-Enlil modeling system to ensemble forecasting of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in an operational environment. In such models, there is no magnetic cloud component, so our results pertain only to CME front properties, such as transit time to Earth. Within this fra…
Dynamic SEP event probability forecasts
Kahler, S. W.; Ling, A.
The forecasting of solar energetic particle (SEP) event probabilities at Earth has been based primarily on the estimates of magnetic free energy in active regions and on the observations of peak fluxes and fluences of large (≥ M2) solar X-ray flares. These forecasts are typically issued for the next 24 h or with no definite expiration time, which …
Forecasting SEP events with same active region prior flares
White, S. M.; Kahler, S. W.; Ling, A.
Forecasting large solar energetic (E > 10 MeV) particle (SEP) events is currently based on observed solar X-ray flare peak fluxes or fluences. Recent work has indicated that the probability of a solar eruptive event in an active region (AR) is enhanced when a large flare has occurred in that AR during the previous day. In addition, peak intensi…
Current status of CME/shock arrival time prediction
Dryer, Murray; Zhao, Xinhua
One of the major solar transients, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and their related interplanetary shocks have severe space weather effects and become the focus of study for both solar and space scientists. Predicting their evolutions in the heliosphere and arrival times at Earth is an important component of the space weather predictions. Various k…
Inner heliosphere MHD modeling system applicable to space weather forecasting for the other planets
Futaana, Y.; Kataoka, R.; Shiota, D. +5 more
We developed a magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) solar wind model which can be used for practical use in real-time space weather forecasting at Earth's orbit and those of other planets. The MHD simulation covering 3 years (2007-2009) was performed to test the accuracy, and the numerical results show reasonable agreement with in situ measurements of the so…
MAG4 versus alternative techniques for forecasting active region flare productivity
Moore, Ronald L.; Falconer, David A.; Barghouty, Abdulnasser F. +1 more
MAG4 is a technique of forecasting an active region's rate of production of major flares in the coming few days from a free magnetic energy proxy. We present a statistical method of measuring the difference in performance between MAG4 and comparable alternative techniques that forecast an active region's major-flare productivity from alternative o…
Energetic particle impact on X-ray imaging with XMM-Newton
Kuntz, K. D.; Snowden, S. L.; Thomas, N. E. +3 more
Since energetic protons (∼100 keV) hinder space-based X-ray imaging, there is a need to characterize the proton environments encountered by a soft X-ray mission when planning missions and operations in the near-Earth environment. Impacts range from enhanced noise in the images to damage to CCD detectors. The high-apogee (17.9 RE), incli…
Two-step forecast of geomagnetic storm using coronal mass ejection and solar wind condition
Kim, Y. -H.; Moon, Y. -J.; Gopalswamy, N. +2 more
To forecast geomagnetic storms, we had examined initially observed parameters of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and introduced an empirical storm forecast model in a previous study. Now we suggest a two-step forecast considering not only CME parameters observed in the solar vicinity but also solar wind conditions near Earth to improve the forecast …
The main pillar: Assessment of space weather observational asset performance supporting nowcasting, forecasting, and research to operations
St. Cyr, O. C.; Hesse, M.; Posner, A.
Space weather forecasting critically depends upon availability of timely and reliable observational data. It is therefore particularly important to understand how existing and newly planned observational assets perform during periods of severe space weather. Extreme space weather creates challenging conditions under which instrumentation and space…