Search Publications
Decent Estimate of CME Arrival Time From a Data-Assimilated Ensemble in the Alfvén Wave Solar Atmosphere Model (DECADE-AWSoM)
Chen, Yang; Manchester, Ward; Huang, Zhenguang +7 more
Forecasting the arrival time of Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) via physics-based simulations is an essential but challenging task in space weather research due to the complexity of the underlying physics and limited remote and in situ observations of these events. Data assimilation techniques can assist in constraining free model par…
A Machine Learning Approach to Predicting SEP Proton Intensity and Events Using Time Series of Relativistic Electron Measurements
Zhang, Ming; Zhao, Lulu; Torres, Jesse +1 more
Solar energetic particles (SEP) can cause severe damage to astronauts and sensitive equipment in space, and can disrupt communications on Earth. A lack of thorough understanding the eruption processes of solar activities and the subsequent acceleration and transport processes of energetic particles makes it difficult for physics-based models to fo…
Using Solar Orbiter as an Upstream Solar Wind Monitor for Real Time Space Weather Predictions
Möstl, C.; Davies, J. A.; Horbury, T. S. +11 more
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) can create significant disruption to human activities and systems on Earth, much of which can be mitigated with prior warning of the upstream solar wind conditions. However, it is currently extremely challenging to accurately predict the arrival time and internal structure of a CME from coronagraph images alone. In th…
The Loss of Starlink Satellites in February 2022: How Moderate Geomagnetic Storms Can Adversely Affect Assets in Low-Earth Orbit
Nandy, Dibyendu; Palmerio, Erika; Pal, Sanchita +4 more
On 3 February 2022, SpaceX launched 49 Starlink satellites, 38 of which unexpectedly de-orbited. Although this event was attributed to space weather, definitive causality remained elusive because space weather conditions were not extreme. In this study, we identify solar sources of the interplanetary coronal mass ejections that were responsible fo…
Solar Wind With Field Lines and Energetic Particles (SOFIE) Model: Application to Historical Solar Energetic Particle Events
van der Holst, Bart; Manchester, Ward; Lario, David +8 more
In this paper, we demonstrate the applicability of the data-driven solar energetic particle (SEP) model, SOlar-wind with FIeld-lines and Energetic-particles (SOFIE), to simulate the acceleration and transport processes of SEPs and make forecast of the energetic proton flux at energies ≥10 MeV that will be observed near 1 AU. The SOFIE model is bui…
MEMPSEP-I. Forecasting the Probability of Solar Energetic Particle Event Occurrence Using a Multivariate Ensemble of Convolutional Neural Networks
Chatterjee, Subhamoy; Dayeh, Maher A.; Muñoz-Jaramillo, Andrés. +3 more
The Sun continuously affects the interplanetary environment through a host of interconnected and dynamic physical processes. Solar flares, Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), and Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) are among the key drivers of space weather in the near-Earth environment and beyond. While some CMEs and flares are associated with intense SE…
MEMPSEP-III. A Machine Learning-Oriented Multivariate Data Set for Forecasting the Occurrence and Properties of Solar Energetic Particle Events Using a Multivariate Ensemble Approach
Chatterjee, Subhamoy; Dayeh, Maher A.; Muñoz-Jaramillo, Andrés. +3 more
We introduce a new multivariate data set that utilizes multiple spacecraft collecting in-situ and remote sensing heliospheric measurements shown to be linked to physical processes responsible for generating solar energetic particles (SEPs). Using the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) flare event list from Solar Cycle (SC) 2…
Correcting Projection Effects in CMEs Using GCS-Based Large Statistics of Multi-Viewpoint Observations
Morgan, Huw; Pal, Sanchita; Pant, Vaibhav +4 more
This study addresses the limitations of single-viewpoint observations of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) by presenting results from a 3D catalog of 360 CMEs during solar cycle 24, fitted using the Graduated Cylindrical Shell (GCS) model. The data set combines 326 previously analyzed CMEs and 34 newly examined events, categorized by their source regi…
Study on Test-Mass Charging for Taiji Gravitational Wave Observatory
Han, Ruilong; Cai, Minghui; Yang, Tao +8 more
Taiji is proposed as a space-based gravitational wave (GW) observatory consisting of three spacecraft in a heliocentric orbit meanwhile with the distance of 3 million kilometers ahead of the Earth at about 20°. Free-falling test masses (TMs) are a key component of the interferometer for space-based GW detection in the 0.1mHz-1 Hz frequency range. …
Long-Term Variation of the Galactic Cosmic Ray Radiation Dose Rates
Qin, G.; Shen, Z. -N.; Lyu, D.
In this work, a model for calculating the galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) radiation dose rate is developed. The model is based on a GCR modulation model, which is established by Shen and Qin, and the fluence-dose conversion coefficients (FDCCs) published by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP). With the model, the radiation a…