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A Surrogate Model for Studying Solar Energetic Particle Transport and the Seed Population
Schwadron, Nathan A.; Baydin, Atilim Guneş; Poduval, Bala
The high energy particles originating from the Sun, known as solar energetic particles (SEPs), contribute significantly to the space radiation environment, posing serious threats to astronauts and scientific instruments on board spacecraft. The mechanism that accelerates the SEPs to the observed energy ranges, their transport in the inner heliosph…
L1 and Off Sun-Earth Line Visible-Light Imaging of Earth-Directed CMEs: An Analysis of Inconsistent Observations
Möstl, Christian; Barnes, David; Davies, Jackie A. +1 more
The efficacy of coronal mass ejection (CME) observations as a key input to space weather forecasting is explored by comparing on and off Sun-Earth line observations from the ESA/NASA SOHO and NASA STEREO spacecraft. A comparison is made of CME catalogs based on L1 coronagraph imagery and off Sun-Earth line coronagraph and heliospheric imager obser…
Unveiling the Space Weather During the Starlink Satellites Destruction Event on 4 February 2022
Wang, Yuming; Luo, Bingxian; Li, Xiaolei +7 more
On 4 February 2022, 38 Starlink satellites were destroyed by the geomagnetic storm, which brought significant financial, aerospace and public influences. In this letter, we reveal the space weather process during 3-4 February 2022 geomagnetic disturbances, from the Sun all the way to the satellite orbiting atmosphere. Initiated by an M1.0 class fl…
Space Weather Environment During the SpaceX Starlink Satellite Loss in February 2022
Millward, George; Singer, Howard J.; Fang, Tzu-Wei +7 more
On 3 February 2022, SpaceX Starlink launched and subsequently lost 38 of 49 satellites due to enhanced neutral density associated with a geomagnetic storm. This study examines the space weather conditions related to the satellite loss, based on observations, forecasts, and numerical simulations from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrat…
CMEs and SEPs During November-December 2020: A Challenge for Real-Time Space Weather Forecasting
Maksimovic, Milan; Möstl, Christian; Galvin, Antoinette B. +20 more
Predictions of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar energetic particles (SEPs) are a central issue in space weather forecasting. In recent years, interest in space weather predictions has expanded to include impacts at other planets beyond Earth as well as spacecraft scattered throughout the heliosphere. In this sense, the scope of space weathe…
CME Evolution in the Structured Heliosphere and Effects at Earth and Mars During Solar Minimum
Nitta, Nariaki V.; Holmström, Mats; Futaana, Yoshifumi +13 more
The activity of the Sun alternates between a solar minimum and a solar maximum, the former corresponding to a period of "quieter" status of the heliosphere. During solar minimum, it is in principle more straightforward to follow eruptive events and solar wind structures from their birth at the Sun throughout their interplanetary journey. In this p…
Interpretable Machine Learning to Forecast SEP Events for Solar Cycle 23
Chen, Yang; Gombosi, Tamas; Zhao, Lulu +3 more
We use machine learning methods to predict whether an active region (AR) which produces flares will lead to a solar energetic particle (SEP) event using Space-Weather Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) Active Region Patches (SMARPs). This new data product is derived from maps of the solar surface magnetic field taken by the MDI aboard the Solar and He…
On the Magnetosphere-Ionosphere Coupling During the May 2021 Geomagnetic Storm
Ubertini, P.; Battiston, R.; Plainaki, C. +20 more
On 12 May 2021 the interplanetary doppelgänger of the 9 May 2021 coronal mass ejection impacted the Earth's magnetosphere, giving rise to a strong geomagnetic storm. This paper discusses the evolution of the various events linking the solar activity to the Earth's ionosphere with special focus on the effects observed in the circumterrestrial envir…
Parameter Distributions for the Drag-Based Modeling of CME Propagation
Foldes, Raffaello; Pietropaolo, Ermanno; Paouris, Evangelos +7 more
In recent years, ensemble modeling has been widely employed in space weather to estimate uncertainties in forecasts. We here focus on the ensemble modeling of Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) arrival times and arrival velocities using a drag-based model, which is well-suited for this purpose due to its simplicity and low computational cost. Although e…
Probabilistic Prediction of Dst Storms One-Day-Ahead Using Full-Disk SoHO Images
Hu, A.; Shneider, C.; Tiwari, A. +1 more
We present a new model for the probability that the disturbance storm time (Dst) index exceeds -100 nT, with a lead time between 1 and 3 days. Dst provides essential information about the strength of the ring current around the Earth caused by the protons and electrons from the solar wind, and it is routinely used as a proxy for geomagnetic storms…