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A Comparison of Flare Forecasting Methods. IV. Evaluating Consecutive-day Forecasting Patterns

Leka, K. D.; Gallagher, Peter T.; Murray, Sophie A. +21 more

A crucial challenge to successful flare prediction is forecasting periods that transition between "flare-quiet" and "flare-active." Building on earlier studies in this series in which we describe the methodology, details, and results of flare forecasting comparison efforts, we focus here on patterns of forecast outcomes (success and failure) over …