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Decent Estimate of CME Arrival Time From a Data-Assimilated Ensemble in the Alfvén Wave Solar Atmosphere Model (DECADE-AWSoM)

Chen, Yang; Manchester, Ward; Huang, Zhenguang +7 more

Forecasting the arrival time of Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) via physics-based simulations is an essential but challenging task in space weather research due to the complexity of the underlying physics and limited remote and in situ observations of these events. Data assimilation techniques can assist in constraining free model par…

A Machine Learning Approach to Predicting SEP Proton Intensity and Events Using Time Series of Relativistic Electron Measurements

Zhang, Ming; Zhao, Lulu; Torres, Jesse +1 more

Solar energetic particles (SEP) can cause severe damage to astronauts and sensitive equipment in space, and can disrupt communications on Earth. A lack of thorough understanding the eruption processes of solar activities and the subsequent acceleration and transport processes of energetic particles makes it difficult for physics-based models to fo…