Search Publications
Forecasting the Arrival Time of Coronal Mass Ejections: Analysis of the CCMC CME Scoreboard
Dumbović, Mateja; Temmer, Manuela; Feng, Xueshang +15 more
Accurate forecasting of the properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) as they approach Earth is now recognized as an important strategic objective for both NOAA and NASA. The time of arrival of such events is a key parameter, one that had been anticipated to be relatively straightforward to constrain. In this study, we analyze forecasts submitte…
The 6 September 2017 X-Class Solar Flares and Their Impacts on the Ionosphere, GNSS, and HF Radio Wave Propagation
Yasyukevich, Y.; Astafyeva, E.; Padokhin, A. +3 more
On 6 September 2017, the Sun emitted two significant solar flares (SFs). The first SF, classified X2.2, peaked at 09:10 UT. The second one, X9.3, which is the most intensive SF in the current solar cycle, peaked at 12:02 UT and was accompanied by solar radio emission. In this work, we study ionospheric response to the two X-class SFs and their imp…
Coronal Magnetic Structure of Earthbound CMEs and In Situ Comparison
Palmerio, E.; Möstl, C.; Kilpua, E. K. J. +6 more
Predicting the magnetic field within an Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME) well before its arrival at Earth is one of the most important issues in space weather research. In this article, we compare the intrinsic flux rope type, that is, the CME orientation and handedness during eruption, with the in situ flux rope type for 20 CME events t…
September 2017's Geoeffective Space Weather and Impacts to Caribbean Radio Communications During Hurricane Response
Seaton, D. B.; Rodriguez, J. V.; He, J. +2 more
Between 4 and 10 September 2017, multiple solar eruptions occurred from active region AR12673. NOAA's and NASA's well-instrumented spacecraft observed the evolution of these geoeffective events from their solar origins, through the interplanetary medium, to their geospace impacts. The 6 September X9.3 flare was the largest to date for the nearly c…
Modeling the Evolution and Propagation of 10 September 2017 CMEs and SEPs Arriving at Mars Constrained by Remote Sensing and In Situ Measurement
Dumbović, Mateja; Temmer, Manuela; Veronig, Astrid +13 more
On 10 September 2017, solar energetic particles originating from the active region 12673 produced a ground level enhancement at Earth. The ground level enhancement on the surface of Mars, 160 longitudinally east of Earth, observed by the Radiation Assessment Detector (RAD) was the largest since the landing of the Curiosity rover in August 2012. Ba…
Forward Modeling of Coronal Mass Ejection Flux Ropes in the Inner Heliosphere with 3DCORE
Palmerio, E.; Möstl, C.; Farrugia, C. J. +7 more
Forecasting the geomagnetic effects of solar storms, known as coronal mass ejections (CMEs), is currently severely limited by our inability to predict the magnetic field configuration in the CME magnetic core and by observational effects of a single spacecraft trajectory through its 3-D structure. CME magnetic flux ropes can lead to continuous for…
The Ground-Level Enhancement Event of September 2017 and Other Large Solar Energetic Particle Events of Cycle 24
Cohen, C. M. S.; Mewaldt, R. A.
The 10 September 2017 solar energetic particle (SEP) event was the largest since June 2015 and one of only two ground-level enhancement (GLE) events of solar cycle 24. GLE events are subset of large SEP events ( 15% of events identified by Space Weather Prediction Center) with particularly hard spectra, making them a substantial space weather haza…
Shock Connectivity and the Late Cycle 24 Solar Energetic Particle Events in July and September 2017
Luhmann, J. G.; Odstrcil, D.; Cohen, C. M. S. +7 more
As solar activity steadily declined toward the cycle 24 minimum in the early months of 2017, the expectation for major solar energetic particle (SEP) events diminished with the sunspot number. It was thus surprising (though not unprecedented) when a new, potentially significant active region rotated around the East limb in early July that by midmo…
Ensemble Prediction of a Halo Coronal Mass Ejection Using Heliospheric Imagers
Möstl, C.; Temmer, M.; Amerstorfer, T. +5 more
The Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) and its heliospheric imagers (HIs) have provided us the possibility to enhance our understanding of the interplanetary propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). HI-based methods are able to forecast arrival times and speeds at any target and use the advantage of tracing a CME's path of propa…
Prediction of Solar Energetic Particle Event Peak Proton Intensity Using a Simple Algorithm Based on CME Speed and Direction and Observations of Associated Solar Phenomena
Thompson, B. J.; Richardson, I. G.; Mays, M. L.
We assess whether a formula obtained by Richardson et al. (2014, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-014-0524-8) relating the peak intensity of 14- to 24-MeV protons in a solar energetic particle (SEP) event at 1 AU to the solar event location and the speed of the associated coronal mass ejection (CME) may be used in a scheme to predict the intensity o…