Search Publications
Modeling observations of solar coronal mass ejections with heliospheric imagers verified with the Heliophysics System Observatory
Rodriguez, L.; Zhang, T. L.; Möstl, C. +19 more
We present an advance toward accurately predicting the arrivals of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at the terrestrial planets, including Earth. For the first time, we are able to assess a CME prediction model using data over two thirds of a solar cycle of observations with the Heliophysics System Observatory. We validate modeling results of 1337 CME…
Modeling solar energetic particle events using ENLIL heliosphere simulations
Futaana, Y.; Luhmann, J. G.; Odstrcil, D. +9 more
Solar energetic particle (SEP) event modeling has gained renewed attention in part because of the availability of a decade of multipoint measurements from STEREO and L1 spacecraft at 1 AU. These observations are coupled with improving simulations of the geometry and strength of heliospheric shocks obtained by using coronagraph images to send erupt…
Solar energetic particle warnings from a coronagraph
St. Cyr, O. C.; Burkepile, J. T.; Posner, A.
We report here the concept of using near-real time observations from a coronagraph to provide early warning of a fast coronal mass ejection (CME) and the possible onset of a solar energetic particle (SEP) event. The 1 January 2016, fast CME, and its associated SEP event are cited as an example. The CME was detected by the ground-based K-Cor corona…
SPRINTS: A Framework for Solar-Driven Event Forecasting and Research
Falconer, D. A.; Engell, A. J.; Schuh, M. +2 more
Capabilities to predict onset and time profiles of solar-driven events, including solar X-ray flares; solar energetic particles (SEP); coronal mass ejections; and high-speed streams, are critical in mitigating their potential impacts. We introduce the Space Radiation Intelligence System (SPRINTS). This NASA-invested technology integrates preerupti…
Predicting the magnetic vectors within coronal mass ejections arriving at Earth: 2. Geomagnetic response
Thompson, B. J.; Bothmer, V.; Richardson, I. G. +6 more
This is a companion to Savani et al. (2015) that discussed how a first-order prediction of the internal magnetic field of a coronal mass ejection (CME) may be made from observations of its initial state at the Sun for space weather forecasting purposes (Bothmer-Schwenn scheme (BSS) model). For eight CME events, we investigate how uncertainties in …
Seismic imaging of the Sun's far hemisphere and its applications in space weather forecasting
Lindsey, Charles; Braun, Douglas
The interior of the Sun is filled acoustic waves with periods of about 5 min. These waves, called "p modes," are understood to be excited by convection in a thin layer beneath the Sun's surface. The p modes cause seismic ripples, which we call "the solar oscillations." Helioseismic observatories use Doppler observations to map these oscillations, …
Real-time prediction of the occurrence of GLE events
Núñez, Marlon; Reyes-Santiago, Pedro J.; Malandraki, Olga E.
A tool for predicting the occurrence of Ground Level Enhancement (GLE) events using the UMASEP scheme is presented. This real-time tool, called HESPERIA UMASEP-500, is based on the detection of the magnetic connection, along which protons arrive in the near-Earth environment, by estimating the lag correlation between the time derivatives of 1 min …
Extreme relativistic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt: Analysis of INTEGRAL IREM data
Meredith, Nigel P.; Horne, Richard B.; Sandberg, Ingmar +2 more
Relativistic electrons (E > 500 keV) cause internal charging and are an important space weather hazard. To assess the vulnerability of the satellite fleet to these so-called "killer" electrons, it is essential to estimate reasonable worst cases, and, in particular, to estimate the flux levels that may be reached once in 10 and once in 100 years…
Improving Empirical Magnetic Field Models by Fitting to In Situ Data Using an Optimized Parameter Approach
Brito, Thiago V.; Morley, Steven K.
A method for comparing and optimizing the accuracy of empirical magnetic field models using in situ magnetic field measurements is presented. The optimization method minimizes a cost function—τ—that explicitly includes both a magnitude and an angular term. A time span of 21 days, including periods of mild and intense geomagnetic activity, was used…
The substorm cycle as reproduced by global MHD models
Gordeev, E.; Sergeev, V.; Tsyganenko, N. +7 more
Recently, Gordeev et al. (2015) suggested a method to test global MHD models against statistical empirical data. They showed that four community-available global MHD models supported by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) produce a reasonable agreement with reality for those key parameters (the magnetospheric size, magnetic field, and…