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Wang-Sheeley-Arge-Enlil Cone Model Transitions to Operations
Odstrcil, Dusan; Pizzo, Vic; Millward, George +3 more
The National Weather Service's (NWS) Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) is transitioning the first large-scale, physics-based space weather prediction model into operations on the NWS National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) supercomputing system (see also C. Schultz, Space weather model moves into prime time, Space Weather, 9, S03…
A tool for empirical forecasting of major flares, coronal mass ejections, and solar particle events from a proxy of active-region free magnetic energy
Falconer, David; Barghouty, Abdulnasser F.; Khazanov, Igor +1 more
This paper describes a new forecasting tool developed for and currently being tested by NASA's Space Radiation Analysis Group (SRAG) at Johnson Space Center, which is responsible for the monitoring and forecasting of radiation exposure levels of astronauts. The new software tool is designed for the empirical forecasting of M- and X-class flares, c…
Geoeffectiveness (Dst and Kp) of interplanetary coronal mass ejections during 1995-2009 and implications for storm forecasting
Cane, H. V.; Richardson, I. G.
We summarize the geoeffectiveness (based on the Dst and Kp indices) of the more than 300 interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) that passed the Earth during 1996-2009, encompassing solar cycle 23. We subsequently estimate the probability that an ICME will generate geomagnetic activity that exceeds certain thresholds of Dst or Kp, including …
Validation of community models: 3. Tracing field lines in heliospheric models
MacNeice, Peter; Elliott, Brian; Acebal, Ariel
Forecasting hazardous gradual solar energetic particle (SEP) bursts at Earth requires accurately modeling field line connections between Earth and the locations of coronal or interplanetary shocks that accelerate the particles. We test the accuracy of field lines reconstructed using four different models of the ambient coronal and inner heliospher…
A comparison of space weather analysis techniques used to predict the arrival of the Earth-directed CME and its shockwave launched on 8 April 2010
Webb, D. F.; Möstl, C.; Farrugia, C. J. +10 more
The Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME) of 8 April 2010 provided an opportunity for space weather predictions from both established and developmental techniques to be made from near-real time data received from the SOHO and STEREO spacecraft; the STEREO spacecraft provide a unique view of Earth-directed events from outside the Sun-Earth lin…
Modeling of coronal mass ejections that caused particularly large geomagnetic storms using ENLIL heliosphere cone model
Odstrcil, D.; Kuznetsova, M.; Hesse, M. +3 more
In our previous paper we reported the results of modeling of 14 selected well-observed strong halo coronal mass ejection (CME) events using the WSA-ENLIL cone model combination. Cone model input parameters were obtained from white light coronagraph images of the CME events using the analytical method developed by Xie et al. (2004). This work verif…
Evaluating predictions of ICME arrival at Earth and Mars
Odstrcil, D.; Vennerstrom, S.; Falkenberg, T. V. +5 more
We present a study of interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) propagation to Earth and Mars. Because of the significant space weather hazard posed by ICMEs, understanding and predicting their arrival and impact at Mars is important for current and future robotic and manned missions to the planet. We compare running ENLILv2.6 with coronal mass …