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The Loss of Starlink Satellites in February 2022: How Moderate Geomagnetic Storms Can Adversely Affect Assets in Low-Earth Orbit

Nandy, Dibyendu; Palmerio, Erika; Pal, Sanchita +4 more

On 3 February 2022, SpaceX launched 49 Starlink satellites, 38 of which unexpectedly de-orbited. Although this event was attributed to space weather, definitive causality remained elusive because space weather conditions were not extreme. In this study, we identify solar sources of the interplanetary coronal mass ejections that were responsible fo…

Solar Wind With Field Lines and Energetic Particles (SOFIE) Model: Application to Historical Solar Energetic Particle Events

van der Holst, Bart; Manchester, Ward; Lario, David +8 more

In this paper, we demonstrate the applicability of the data-driven solar energetic particle (SEP) model, SOlar-wind with FIeld-lines and Energetic-particles (SOFIE), to simulate the acceleration and transport processes of SEPs and make forecast of the energetic proton flux at energies ≥10 MeV that will be observed near 1 AU. The SOFIE model is bui…

MEMPSEP-I. Forecasting the Probability of Solar Energetic Particle Event Occurrence Using a Multivariate Ensemble of Convolutional Neural Networks

Chatterjee, Subhamoy; Dayeh, Maher A.; Muñoz-Jaramillo, Andrés. +3 more

The Sun continuously affects the interplanetary environment through a host of interconnected and dynamic physical processes. Solar flares, Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), and Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) are among the key drivers of space weather in the near-Earth environment and beyond. While some CMEs and flares are associated with intense SE…

MEMPSEP-III. A Machine Learning-Oriented Multivariate Data Set for Forecasting the Occurrence and Properties of Solar Energetic Particle Events Using a Multivariate Ensemble Approach

Chatterjee, Subhamoy; Dayeh, Maher A.; Muñoz-Jaramillo, Andrés. +3 more

We introduce a new multivariate data set that utilizes multiple spacecraft collecting in-situ and remote sensing heliospheric measurements shown to be linked to physical processes responsible for generating solar energetic particles (SEPs). Using the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) flare event list from Solar Cycle (SC) 2…

Correcting Projection Effects in CMEs Using GCS-Based Large Statistics of Multi-Viewpoint Observations

Morgan, Huw; Pal, Sanchita; Pant, Vaibhav +4 more

This study addresses the limitations of single-viewpoint observations of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) by presenting results from a 3D catalog of 360 CMEs during solar cycle 24, fitted using the Graduated Cylindrical Shell (GCS) model. The data set combines 326 previously analyzed CMEs and 34 newly examined events, categorized by their source regi…