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Magnetohydrodynamic simulation of interplanetary propagation of multiple coronal mass ejections with internal magnetic flux rope (SUSANOO-CME)

Kataoka, R.; Shiota, D.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the most important drivers of various types of space weather disturbance. Here we report a newly developed magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation of the solar wind, including a series of multiple CMEs with internal spheromak-type magnetic fields. First, the polarity of the spheromak magnetic field is set as determin…

The radial speed-expansion speed relation for Earth-directed CMEs

Gopalswamy, N.; Yashiro, S.; Mäkelä, P.

Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the main drivers of major geomagnetic storms. Therefore, a good estimate of the disturbance arrival time at Earth is required for space weather predictions. The STEREO and SOHO spacecraft were viewing the Sun in near quadrature during January 2010 to September 2012, providing a unique opportunity to…

The utility of polarized heliospheric imaging for space weather monitoring

Webb, D. F.; Davies, J. A.; DeForest, C. E. +1 more

A polarizing heliospheric imager is a critical next generation tool for space weather monitoring and prediction. Heliospheric imagers can track coronal mass ejections (CMEs) as they cross the solar system, using sunlight scattered by electrons in the CME. This tracking has been demonstrated to improve the forecasting of impact probability and arri…

Prediction of shock arrival times from CME and flare data

Nieves-Chinchilla, Teresa; Pulkkinen, Antti; Núñez, Marlon

This paper presents the Shock Arrival Model (SARM) for predicting shock arrival times for distances from 0.72 AU to 8.7 AU by using coronal mass ejections (CME) and flare data. SARM is an aerodynamic drag model described by a differential equation that has been calibrated with a data set of 120 shocks observed from 1997 to 2010 by minimizing the m…