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Current status of CME/shock arrival time prediction

Dryer, Murray; Zhao, Xinhua

One of the major solar transients, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and their related interplanetary shocks have severe space weather effects and become the focus of study for both solar and space scientists. Predicting their evolutions in the heliosphere and arrival times at Earth is an important component of the space weather predictions. Various k…

MAG4 versus alternative techniques for forecasting active region flare productivity

Moore, Ronald L.; Falconer, David A.; Barghouty, Abdulnasser F. +1 more

MAG4 is a technique of forecasting an active region's rate of production of major flares in the coming few days from a free magnetic energy proxy. We present a statistical method of measuring the difference in performance between MAG4 and comparable alternative techniques that forecast an active region's major-flare productivity from alternative o…

Two-step forecast of geomagnetic storm using coronal mass ejection and solar wind condition

Kim, Y. -H.; Moon, Y. -J.; Gopalswamy, N. +2 more

To forecast geomagnetic storms, we had examined initially observed parameters of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and introduced an empirical storm forecast model in a previous study. Now we suggest a two-step forecast considering not only CME parameters observed in the solar vicinity but also solar wind conditions near Earth to improve the forecast …

The main pillar: Assessment of space weather observational asset performance supporting nowcasting, forecasting, and research to operations

St. Cyr, O. C.; Hesse, M.; Posner, A.

Space weather forecasting critically depends upon availability of timely and reliable observational data. It is therefore particularly important to understand how existing and newly planned observational assets perform during periods of severe space weather. Extreme space weather creates challenging conditions under which instrumentation and space…