Search Publications
A technique for short-term warning of solar energetic particle events based on flare location, flare size, and evidence of particle escape
Kaiser, M. L.; Ling, A. G.; Laurenza, M. +4 more
We have developed a technique to provide short-term warnings of solar energetic proton (SEP) events that meet or exceed the Space Weather Prediction Center threshold of J (>10 MeV) = 10 pr cm-2 s-1 sr-1. The method is based on flare location, flare size, and evidence of particle acceleration/escape as parameteri…
Automated Solar Activity Prediction: A hybrid computer platform using machine learning and solar imaging for automated prediction of solar flares
Colak, T.; Qahwaji, R.
The importance of real-time processing of solar data especially for space weather applications is increasing continuously. In this paper, we present an automated hybrid computer platform for the short-term prediction of significant solar flares using SOHO/Michelson Doppler Imager images. This platform is called the Automated Solar Activity Predict…
Validation of the coronal mass ejection predictions at the Earth orbit estimated by ENLIL heliosphere cone model
Odstrcil, D.; Kuznetsova, M.; Hesse, M. +5 more
Modeling is an important tool in understanding physical processes in the space weather. Model performance studies evaluate the quality of model operation by comparing its output to a measurable parameter of interest. In this paper we studied the performance of the combination of the halo coronal mass ejection (CME) analytical cone model and ENLIL …
Three frontside full halo coronal mass ejections with a nontypical geomagnetic response
Zhukov, A. N.; Rodriguez, L.; Schmieder, B. +9 more
Forecasting potential geoeffectiveness of solar disturbances (in particular, of frontside full halo coronal mass ejections) is important for various practical purposes, e.g., for satellite operations, radio communications, global positioning system applications, power grid, and pipeline maintenance. We analyze three frontside full halo coronal mas…
Studying geoeffective interplanetary coronal mass ejections between the Sun and Earth: Space weather implications of Solar Mass Ejection Imager observations
Webb, D. F.; Jackson, B. V.; Fry, C. D. +4 more
Interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) are the primary cause of severe space weather at Earth because they drive shocks and trigger geomagnetic storms that can damage spacecraft and ground-based systems. The Solar Mass Ejection Imager (SMEI) is a U. S. Air Force experiment with the ability to track ICMEs in white light from near the Sun to …
A New Trend in Forecasting Solar Radiation Hazards
Heber, Bernd; Posner, Arik; Guetersloh, Stephen +1 more
Several international space agencies plan to send astronauts beyond low-Earth orbit in the coming decades to explore the Moon or other nearby planetary objects. Humans leaving the Earth's magnetosphere enter the solar wind, potentially exposing themselves to prompt solar energetic particle (SEP) events, which are sudden outbursts of energetic part…
Predictions of interplanetary shock arrivals at Earth: Dependence of forecast outcome on the input parameters
Dryer, M.; Fry, C. D.; Smith, Z. K. +1 more
Predictions of interplanetary shock arrivals at Earth are important to space weather because they are often followed by geomagnetic disturbances that disrupt human technologies. The success of numerical simulation predictions depends on the codes and on the inputs obtained from solar observations. The inputs are usually divided into the more slowl…
Real-time predictions of geomagnetic storms and substorms: Use of the Solar Wind Magnetosphere-Ionosphere System model
Kozyra, J.; Mays, M. L.; Horton, W. +1 more
A low-dimensional, plasma physics-based, nonlinear dynamical model of the coupled magnetosphere-ionosphere system, called Real-Time Solar Wind Magnetosphere-Ionosphere System (WINDMI), is used to predict AL and Dst values approximately 1 h before geomagnetic substorm and storm event. Subsequently, every 10 min ground-based measurements compiled by…
Forecasting maximum solar flare magnitudes from photospheric magnetograms
Sakurai, T.; Yamamoto, Tetsuya T.
The purpose of this paper is to forecast the maximum solar flare magnitude in an active region and its uncertainty from photospheric magnetic field data. We analyzed 21 flare samples covering X-ray flare magnitudes from A5.0 to X17.0. Photospheric magnetic parameters are obtained from vector and line of sight magnetograms observed with the Solar F…