Search Publications
Decent Estimate of CME Arrival Time From a Data-Assimilated Ensemble in the Alfvén Wave Solar Atmosphere Model (DECADE-AWSoM)
Chen, Yang; Manchester, Ward; Huang, Zhenguang +7 more
Forecasting the arrival time of Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) via physics-based simulations is an essential but challenging task in space weather research due to the complexity of the underlying physics and limited remote and in situ observations of these events. Data assimilation techniques can assist in constraining free model par…
A Machine Learning Approach to Predicting SEP Proton Intensity and Events Using Time Series of Relativistic Electron Measurements
Zhang, Ming; Zhao, Lulu; Torres, Jesse +1 more
Solar energetic particles (SEP) can cause severe damage to astronauts and sensitive equipment in space, and can disrupt communications on Earth. A lack of thorough understanding the eruption processes of solar activities and the subsequent acceleration and transport processes of energetic particles makes it difficult for physics-based models to fo…
The Loss of Starlink Satellites in February 2022: How Moderate Geomagnetic Storms Can Adversely Affect Assets in Low-Earth Orbit
Nandy, Dibyendu; Palmerio, Erika; Pal, Sanchita +4 more
On 3 February 2022, SpaceX launched 49 Starlink satellites, 38 of which unexpectedly de-orbited. Although this event was attributed to space weather, definitive causality remained elusive because space weather conditions were not extreme. In this study, we identify solar sources of the interplanetary coronal mass ejections that were responsible fo…
Solar Wind With Field Lines and Energetic Particles (SOFIE) Model: Application to Historical Solar Energetic Particle Events
van der Holst, Bart; Manchester, Ward; Lario, David +8 more
In this paper, we demonstrate the applicability of the data-driven solar energetic particle (SEP) model, SOlar-wind with FIeld-lines and Energetic-particles (SOFIE), to simulate the acceleration and transport processes of SEPs and make forecast of the energetic proton flux at energies ≥10 MeV that will be observed near 1 AU. The SOFIE model is bui…
MEMPSEP-I. Forecasting the Probability of Solar Energetic Particle Event Occurrence Using a Multivariate Ensemble of Convolutional Neural Networks
Chatterjee, Subhamoy; Dayeh, Maher A.; Muñoz-Jaramillo, Andrés. +3 more
The Sun continuously affects the interplanetary environment through a host of interconnected and dynamic physical processes. Solar flares, Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), and Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) are among the key drivers of space weather in the near-Earth environment and beyond. While some CMEs and flares are associated with intense SE…
MEMPSEP-III. A Machine Learning-Oriented Multivariate Data Set for Forecasting the Occurrence and Properties of Solar Energetic Particle Events Using a Multivariate Ensemble Approach
Chatterjee, Subhamoy; Dayeh, Maher A.; Muñoz-Jaramillo, Andrés. +3 more
We introduce a new multivariate data set that utilizes multiple spacecraft collecting in-situ and remote sensing heliospheric measurements shown to be linked to physical processes responsible for generating solar energetic particles (SEPs). Using the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) flare event list from Solar Cycle (SC) 2…
Correcting Projection Effects in CMEs Using GCS-Based Large Statistics of Multi-Viewpoint Observations
Morgan, Huw; Pal, Sanchita; Pant, Vaibhav +4 more
This study addresses the limitations of single-viewpoint observations of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) by presenting results from a 3D catalog of 360 CMEs during solar cycle 24, fitted using the Graduated Cylindrical Shell (GCS) model. The data set combines 326 previously analyzed CMEs and 34 newly examined events, categorized by their source regi…
High Energy Solar Particle Events and Their Relationship to Associated Flare, CME and GLE Parameters
Vainio, R.; Dalla, S.; Raukunen, O. +3 more
Large solar eruptive events, including solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), can lead to solar energetic particle (SEP) events. During these events, protons are accelerated up to several GeV and pose numerous space weather risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, radiation hazards to astronauts and disruption to satellites and…
Detection and Characterization of a Coronal Mass Ejection Using Interplanetary Scintillation Measurements From the Murchison Widefield Array
Morgan, J.; Ekers, R.; McCauley, P. I. +2 more
We have shown previously that the Murchison Widefield Array (MWA), can detect 100s of Interplanetary Scintillation (IPS) sources simultaneously across a field of view (FoV) ∼30° in extent. To test if we can use this capability to track heliospheric structures, we undertook a search of 88 hr of MWA IPS data, and identified an observation likely to …
Upstream Solar Wind Prediction up to Mars by an Operational Solar Wind Prediction System
Luo, Bingxian; Zhong, Qiuzhen; Liu, Siqing +10 more
Combining the upstream solar wind observations measured by Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution (MAVEN), Advanced Composition Explorer(ACE) and Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) from October 2014 to April 2021, we investigate the statistical properties of the background solar wind at Mars and Earth. By applying an operational solar wind pr…