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Forecasting SEP events with same active region prior flares

White, S. M.; Kahler, S. W.; Ling, A.

Forecasting large solar energetic (E > 10 MeV) particle (SEP) events is currently based on observed solar X-ray flare peak fluxes or fluences. Recent work has indicated that the probability of a solar eruptive event in an active region (AR) is enhanced when a large flare has occurred in that AR during the previous day. In addition, peak intensi…