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Forecasting SEP events with same active region prior flares
White, S. M.; Kahler, S. W.; Ling, A.
Forecasting large solar energetic (E > 10 MeV) particle (SEP) events is currently based on observed solar X-ray flare peak fluxes or fluences. Recent work has indicated that the probability of a solar eruptive event in an active region (AR) is enhanced when a large flare has occurred in that AR during the previous day. In addition, peak intensi…
Forecasting maximum solar flare magnitudes from photospheric magnetograms
Sakurai, T.; Yamamoto, Tetsuya T.
The purpose of this paper is to forecast the maximum solar flare magnitude in an active region and its uncertainty from photospheric magnetic field data. We analyzed 21 flare samples covering X-ray flare magnitudes from A5.0 to X17.0. Photospheric magnetic parameters are obtained from vector and line of sight magnetograms observed with the Solar F…