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The probabilistic solar particle event forecasting (PROSPER) model

Paassilta, Miikka; Raukunen, Osku; Vainio, Rami +6 more

The Probabilistic Solar Particle Event foRecasting (PROSPER) model predicts the probability of occurrence and the expected peak flux of solar energetic particle (SEP) events. Predictions are derived for a set of integral proton energies (i.e., E > 10, > 30, and > 100 MeV) from characteristics of solar flares (longitude, magnitude), corona…