An Analytical Model to Predict the Arrival Time of Interplanetary CMEs

Abstract

Referring to the aerodynamic drag force, we present an analytical model to predict the arrival time of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). All related calculations are based on the expression for the deceleration of fast CMEs in the interplanetary medium (ICMEs), \dot{v}=-1/15 700(v-V_{SW})² , where V_SW is the solar wind speed. The results can reproduce well the observations of three typical parameters: the initial speed of the CME, the speed of the ICME at 1 AU and the transit time. Our simple model reveals that the drag acceleration should be really the essential feature of the interplanetary motion of CMEs, as suggested by Vršnak and Gopalswamy (J. Geophys. Res.107, 1019, 2002).